Base On Error

Where We Stand.

Now that we are a month into the season, let’s see where we are in regards to Baseball Prospectus’ preseason predictions:

AL EAST

• Predicted Winner: Boston Red Sox
• Current Leader: New York Yankees

AL CENTRAL

• Predicted Winner: Chicago White Sox
• Current Leader: Cleveland Indians

AL WEST

• Predicted Winner: Texas Rangers
• Current Leader: Los Angeles Angels

NL EAST

• Predicted Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
• Current Leader: Philadelphia Phillies

NL CENTRAL

• Predicted Winner: Cincinnati Reds
• Current Leader: St. Louis Cardinals

NL WEST

• Predicted Winner: San Francisco Giants
• Current Leader: Colorado Rockies

ANALYSIS AFTER THE BREAK

Alright, I’ll give credit where credit is due, BP was pretty close in at least four cases. In the AL West, and the NL, if the predicted winner isn’t already in first, they’re in a close second.

Let’s talk AL East, though. The Red Sox are NOT playing anywhere near where they’re expected to. Although they’ve eeked out some wins here and there, they in no way, shape or form look like the World Series champions many expected before the 2011 campaign.

But, you know, let’s give them that one, too. You’re not always going to be right. Who would have known that they were going to stumble so badly coming out of the gates?

Which brings us to the AL Central. WHERE ARE YOUR SABERMETRICS NOW?! The AL Central is a veritable shit-show right now. If you took the preseason predictions, put the Tribe in the cellar instead of the Royals, and flipped it, you’d have the current standings.

The White Sox are playing, possibly, the worst ball in the big leagues. They’re even worse than the Red Sox, and analysts are already predicting that long-time manager Ozzie Guillen’s job may be in jeopardy. Pretty rough stuff for a team everyone thought would take the division.

And, hoo boy, the Minnesota Twins are in deep water right now. Star Joe Mauer, fresh from signing a long-term, big-money contract was DL’d after having bi-lateral leg weakness. He’s still out pending his rehab assignment. The team is currently 7 games under .500.

The real story is the Cleveland Indians, as you’ve probably heard. The team that struggles to fill its ballpark to twenty-five percent capacity is tearing up the American League with five series sweeps and a 21-9 record. They currently have the best record in the majors.

Is this team for real? Yeah. I’m from Cleveland, let’s just get that out of the way right now. I’ve heard every angle of this story already. But the fact is, this is a team built from prospects, and was expected to start contending next season. All that has happened is that they’ve figured it out a year early.

The Cleveland Indians can definitely win the AL Central this season, no doubt about that. But are they going to win the World Series this year and end Cleveland’s title drought? Sorry, but I think you’ll be waiting at least one more year.